Shell Presents Future of Energy Through Scenarios
Jun 26, 2013
Shell International’s Chief Political Analyst in the Global Business Environment Team Dr Cho-Oon Khong was in Manila recently for the Shell-led New Lens Scenarios Forum, which gathered over 200 participants and stakeholders from the government, private sector, media, academe, and non-government organisations.
Launched in the Philippines this June, the New Lens Scenarios explores how the global energy system will look like the 21st century and how the choices made by government, businesses, and individuals impact the world. The multi-sectoral dialogue on energy was an opportunity for Shell to share its insights on two possible scenarios of the future, taking into consideration some of the pressing issues and global trends as ‘lenses’. The Scenarios provide an in-depth analysis of how economic, social and political forces might play out over the 21st century.
As a global leader in power, energy, and gas technology, Shell is working to meet increasing energy demand and supply challenges by delivering smarter products and cleaner energy, smarter infrastructure, promoting smarter use, and by developing new energy sources while addressing the impact on the environment, through cleaner burning-natural gas and advanced fuels and lubricants technology. Shell has been exploring alternative views of the future for over four decades now, for a better understanding of how the world might appear decades ahead to allow generations of leaders to make better business decisions.
From the Shell scenarios, Dr Khong presented two scenarios called Mountains and Oceans, its advantages and drawbacks and what are their implications to, among others, policy-making, environmental management, and energy landscapes.
“We cannot simply carry on consuming energy in the way that we have done for a long time because our behavior have major impacts on energy supply, energy demand and most importantly climate change,” said Dr Khong.
In the Mountains scenario, Shell sees a strong role for government and the introduction of firm and far-reaching policy measures, developing more compact cities, transform the global transport network, and paving the way to unlock more natural gas resources. New policies unlock plentiful natural gas resources – making it the largest global energy source by the 2030s – and accelerate carbon capture and storage technology, supporting a cleaner energy system. In the Oceans scenarios, it describes a more prosperous and volatile world where energy demand surges, due to strong economic growth; market policies rather than policies will shape the energy system, with solar energy becoming the largest energy source in 2070s.
“Looking at both the mountain and oceans scenario, the reality will demand a mix of the two. Addressing the problems we faced is crucial. With climate change impacting the world today and the reality of population boom, it’s important to push for a more sustainable path to development and managing the demands of energy,” said Elisea Gozun, Presidential Assistant II for Climate Change in her reaction during the panel discussion of the Shell New Lens Scenarios Forum. She added that technology has to be maximized, and government has to be more flexible to work differently, putting in place policies to address problems more effectively. In terms of energy needs, she highlighted the importance of the development of locally available energy sources as well the push for carbon capture and storage (CCS), push for eco-efficiency, more sustainable consumption, and make energy conservation a way of life.
Panel reactors including Ambassador Cesar Bautista, Sophie Punte of Clean Air Asiaand Philippine Star’s Boo Chanco, also shared distinct positions and varied insights on the scenarios presented, among which are types of energy in powering the future, moderating greenhouse gas emissions, energy mix and security, and the implications of global economic development, insights on the implementation of cleaner fuels, and how natural gas will play a major energy source of the future.